Monday, December 23, 2024
 
Stock Markets’ Single Driver These Days: Monetary Policy

WASHINGTON, D.C. July 8 (DPI) – Friday’s jobs number came in stronger than expected – 224,000 new jobs created in June. It’s a development that ordinarily would trigger more bullishness in the stock markets – but these are no ordinary times, as stocks fell and investors counted on enough of a global economic slowdown to warrant a cut in already-low interest rates.

In fact, many economists acknowledge that the US and other western economies are addicted to artificially low interest rates – at the expense of virtually all other economic factors, including the ongoing row over tariffs.

And with a controversial US president up for re-election next year, the pressure on the Federal Reserve Board to cut interest rates remains high, even as there’s great pressure to move rates back to their higher traditional levels.

Readers, though, seem well aware of the dangers of a stock market dependent on low interest rates, at a time when the 10-year-old economic expansion is not far from running itself out.

The top readers comments on WashingtonPost.com today :

“… The president still wants rate cuts to ensure his reelection.”

And, therein lies the problem.  This administration has already created a “sugar high” in the economy by cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations but also increased the deficit by over $1.6 trillion dollars.  Now that it looks like things are settling down to a more normal rate of growth, Trump wants an added stimulus to juice the economy again.  It has nothing to do with whether an interest rate cut would be good for the economy, it is all about the perception that the economy is going strong so that he can use that to get re-elected.  

But, the pied piper will come sooner than later and when that happens, we will not have enough money in tax revenue to pay the bills (least of all, pay off the debt).  And, if the interest rates are still low, there won’t be room for the Fed to move much to stimulate the economy when we really need it.  

Free money is worth more to these people than employed Americans.  That should tell you how screwed up our tax code is in favor of the rich…

The current market and economy is a sugar bubble build on massive debt to keep it artificial high — the burst will be bad…………………………..hurt millions and given the low rates and the fact has not reduced its balance sheet — they have no room to really cushion the next recession.

I have to laugh every time I read one of these headlines. First the market goes up in anticipation of a rate cut. Now an inconvenient increase in employment causes it to backtrack. That’s why I bury my dough in the backyard.

Advertisements

Click Here!